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KEY WORDS: Demographic consequence · Corticosterone · Kittiwake · Survival · Food availability · Colony Cite this article as: Satterthwaite WH, Kitaysky AS, Mangel M (2012) Linking climate variability, productivity and stress to demography in a long-lived seabird.

ABSTRACT: Describing large-scale patterns of biological diversity is a first step towards understanding the mechanisms that generate and maintain diversity.

ABSTRACT: We examined the reproductive ecology of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in several breeding colonies in the North Pacific to test if inter-annual changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Winter Ice Cover (ICI), or local sea-surface temperature (SST) predict changes in productivity (fledglings per nest) or nutritional stress (corticosterone).

ABSTRACT: Conditions in arctic marine environments are changing rapidly, and understanding the link between environmental and demographic parameters could help to predict the consequences of future change for arctic seabirds.

We predict decline (without immigration) for colonies with the lowest productivity and conclude that climate variability is likely to affect survival of North Pacific kittiwakes on a region-specific basis.

Longevity of these birds may not always be sufficient to buffer their populations from low reproductive performance.

These findings support earlier suggestions of a unimodal productivity−diversity relationship in the deep sea that were based on other proxies (e.g.

water depth, modelled particulate organic carbon flux).